신규 모바일 수요예측을 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링 (System dynamics modeling for new mobile demand prediction)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국시스템다이내믹스학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국시스템다이내믹스연구 / 19권 / 2호 / 137 ~ 155페이지
· 저자명 : 장재혁

초록

Korea is promoting the commercialization of 5G mobile communication for the first time in the world. However, the prospects for the future of 5G are still vague, demand forecasts are less active. In order to solve the uncertainty of the future and support resonable decision-making, this paper was tried to approach through the systematic thinking about the use of new mobile services.
As a result of the scenario, diffusion rate of 5G time series prediction was lower than 4G time series observation, and the estimation of the new mobile subscribers is reaching 41 million after 82 months of the launching. Change scenarios about potential user and commercial launching time, these could be compared with the each others. This study can be used as a basis for determining additional spectrum allocation or appropriate amount of spectrum in response to increasing demand of 5G in the future. It is meaningful to increase the effectiveness of demand prediction by constructing and simulating related influence variables based on systematic thinking.

영어초록

Korea is promoting the commercialization of 5G mobile communication for the first time in the world. However, the prospects for the future of 5G are still vague, demand forecasts are less active. In order to solve the uncertainty of the future and support resonable decision-making, this paper was tried to approach through the systematic thinking about the use of new mobile services.
As a result of the scenario, diffusion rate of 5G time series prediction was lower than 4G time series observation, and the estimation of the new mobile subscribers is reaching 41 million after 82 months of the launching. Change scenarios about potential user and commercial launching time, these could be compared with the each others. This study can be used as a basis for determining additional spectrum allocation or appropriate amount of spectrum in response to increasing demand of 5G in the future. It is meaningful to increase the effectiveness of demand prediction by constructing and simulating related influence variables based on systematic thinking.

참고자료

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