Individually Advantageous but Collectively Ruinous Bets

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국과학철학회
· 수록지 정보 : 과학철학 / 18권 / 2호 / 15 ~ 33페이지
· 저자명 : 이충형

초록

Vann McGee (1999) presents a Dutch book composed of infinitely many bets each of which has a positive expected utility but whose cumulative outcome is a sure loss. The Dutch book poses a serious challenge to decision theory because it seems practically possible to offer or take all the bets in it. I resolve the threat of McGee’s Dutch book not by putting any restrictions on utility scales but by demonstrating that we actually need an infinite bankroll, and thus it is practically impossible, to offer or take all of these bets. On the other hand, I argue that decision theory cannot properly handle the possibility of there being an infinite amount of money: None of the well-established principles of decision theory say anything about what payment method to use, but your fortune depends critically on how to make payments in case there is an infinite amount of money. While justifying this solution, I draw several important lessons regarding notions of utility and bet in decision theory.

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