몽골의 출생률 동향에 대한 대기 오염 및 기후 조건의 영향 평가 (Assessing the Effects of Air Pollution and Environmental Conditions on Birth Trends in Mongolia)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 조선대학교 기초과학연구원
· 수록지 정보 : 통합자연과학논문집 / 18권 / 1호 / 11 ~ 24페이지
· 저자명 : 오트공바야르 우진, 김윤수, 장인홍

초록

Birth rates are shaped by a complex interplay of socioeconomic and environmental factors, yet the extent to which air pollution and climatic variability influence birth rates remains an understudied area in Mongolia. This study investigates the impact of air pollution, environmental conditions, and economic factors on birth rates in Mongolia from 2016 to 2024. While economic conditions have traditionally been regarded as the primary determinants of birth trends, recent evidence suggests that environmental factors such as air pollution and climatic variability may also play a crucial role. This study employs multiple regression techniques, including linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression, and elastic net regression, to identify the most predictive model for birth rate fluctuations. The findings indicate that incorporating environmental variables significantly enhances model performance, as demonstrated through linear regression and ANOVA comparisons between economic-only and full models. Among the models, lasso regression exhibits the best fit, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy in estimating birth rates. The results highlight the strong negative influence of economic instability—particularly mortgage loan burdens— on fertility trends, while also underscoring the substantial impact of air pollution and climatic factors. These findings suggest that an integrated approach addressing both economic and environmental determinants is necessary for effective policy interventions aimed at improving reproductive health outcomes in Mongolia.

영어초록

Birth rates are shaped by a complex interplay of socioeconomic and environmental factors, yet the extent to which air pollution and climatic variability influence birth rates remains an understudied area in Mongolia. This study investigates the impact of air pollution, environmental conditions, and economic factors on birth rates in Mongolia from 2016 to 2024. While economic conditions have traditionally been regarded as the primary determinants of birth trends, recent evidence suggests that environmental factors such as air pollution and climatic variability may also play a crucial role. This study employs multiple regression techniques, including linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression, and elastic net regression, to identify the most predictive model for birth rate fluctuations. The findings indicate that incorporating environmental variables significantly enhances model performance, as demonstrated through linear regression and ANOVA comparisons between economic-only and full models. Among the models, lasso regression exhibits the best fit, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy in estimating birth rates. The results highlight the strong negative influence of economic instability—particularly mortgage loan burdens— on fertility trends, while also underscoring the substantial impact of air pollution and climatic factors. These findings suggest that an integrated approach addressing both economic and environmental determinants is necessary for effective policy interventions aimed at improving reproductive health outcomes in Mongolia.

참고자료

· 없음