한국형앙상블모델(KIM)의 장마 시종일 예측성능 진단: 2021년 장마사례를 중심으로 (Changma Onset and Withdrawal Prediction Skill Using Korean Integrated Model (KIM): Focused on the Case Study of 2021 Changma)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기상학회
· 수록지 정보 : 대기 / 34권 / 4호 / 349 ~ 358페이지
· 저자명 : 김주헌, 심지한, 김백민

초록

The accurate prediction of Changma (Korean summer monsoon) onset and withdrawal dates is crucial for various sectors including agriculture, water resource management, and disaster prevention. This study applies 25 ensemble members from the operational Korean Integrated Model (KIM) to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Changma Index (CMI) to diagnose the forecast skill for the onset and withdrawal dates of the 2021 Changma, which marked as the third shortest period on record. The CMI, consisting of 200 hPa geopotential height and zonal wind variables around the Korean Peninsula, was used to compare reanalysis data and KIM’s ensemble forecast data. While the CMI from individual ensemble members showed significant variability in predicting the Changma onset and withdrawal dates, the ensemble mean CMI accurately predicted the Changma onset date 12 days in advance with a one-day error margin, and also accurately predicted the Changma withdrawal date 9 days in advance.
Detailed analysis of the variables constituting the CMI in KIM’s ensemble forecast data indicated that variations in the 200 hPa geopotential height were particularly influential in determining the Changma onset and withdrawal dates. These results demonstrate that the ensemble mean forecast of KIM is more effective than individual ensemble member forecasts for predicting Changma onset and withdrawal dates, highlights the utility of KIM’s ensemble forecast data and the effectiveness of using upper atmospheric variables (specifically 200 hPa geopotential height) for these predictions.

영어초록

The accurate prediction of Changma (Korean summer monsoon) onset and withdrawal dates is crucial for various sectors including agriculture, water resource management, and disaster prevention. This study applies 25 ensemble members from the operational Korean Integrated Model (KIM) to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Changma Index (CMI) to diagnose the forecast skill for the onset and withdrawal dates of the 2021 Changma, which marked as the third shortest period on record. The CMI, consisting of 200 hPa geopotential height and zonal wind variables around the Korean Peninsula, was used to compare reanalysis data and KIM’s ensemble forecast data. While the CMI from individual ensemble members showed significant variability in predicting the Changma onset and withdrawal dates, the ensemble mean CMI accurately predicted the Changma onset date 12 days in advance with a one-day error margin, and also accurately predicted the Changma withdrawal date 9 days in advance.
Detailed analysis of the variables constituting the CMI in KIM’s ensemble forecast data indicated that variations in the 200 hPa geopotential height were particularly influential in determining the Changma onset and withdrawal dates. These results demonstrate that the ensemble mean forecast of KIM is more effective than individual ensemble member forecasts for predicting Changma onset and withdrawal dates, highlights the utility of KIM’s ensemble forecast data and the effectiveness of using upper atmospheric variables (specifically 200 hPa geopotential height) for these predictions.

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