화물선박의 오염 기여도 산정을 위한 BFM 적용 시 배출량 삭감량에 따른 불확도 분석 (A Study of Uncertainty on BFM Method with Variations in Reduction of Emissions to Estimate Source Contributions of Cargo Ships)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국대기환경학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국대기환경학회지 / 36권 / 6호 / 757 ~ 773페이지
· 저자명 : 이진숙, 이충대, 권문주

초록

In this study, the characteristic of BFM was studied wherein nonlinearity was shown in the relation between ship emissions and PM2.5 concentrations. The study was varied the cargo ship emissions reduction from 100%, 70%, and 50%, to 30% to review uncertainties and estimate the range of contributions for the simulated results and sensitivity analysis was conducted for each component. As a result, nonlinear characteristics were found for change in the ship emissions and, accordingly, for change in the PM2.5 levels. However the coefficient of quadratic terms was small enough and there was not a significant curved pattern change for the ship sources. The components, excluding those that include EC and mineral particles, are chemical species that have a range of chemical reactions in the atmosphere to lead the secondary formation of PM2.5. Therefore, although the pollutant emissions from ships decreased the same rate, the simulated levels showed a nonlinear tendency. For the episode period, the contribution of ships was analyzed for each of the conditions for ship emissions sensitivity experiments. As a result, for Sinheung, which is located closest to the port, the contributions ranged from 4.3 to 4.8 μg/m3; following this, the range was from 2.8 to 3.1 μg/m3 for Songnim, and from 0.9 to 1.2 μg/m3 for Bupyeong.

영어초록

In this study, the characteristic of BFM was studied wherein nonlinearity was shown in the relation between ship emissions and PM2.5 concentrations. The study was varied the cargo ship emissions reduction from 100%, 70%, and 50%, to 30% to review uncertainties and estimate the range of contributions for the simulated results and sensitivity analysis was conducted for each component. As a result, nonlinear characteristics were found for change in the ship emissions and, accordingly, for change in the PM2.5 levels. However the coefficient of quadratic terms was small enough and there was not a significant curved pattern change for the ship sources. The components, excluding those that include EC and mineral particles, are chemical species that have a range of chemical reactions in the atmosphere to lead the secondary formation of PM2.5. Therefore, although the pollutant emissions from ships decreased the same rate, the simulated levels showed a nonlinear tendency. For the episode period, the contribution of ships was analyzed for each of the conditions for ship emissions sensitivity experiments. As a result, for Sinheung, which is located closest to the port, the contributions ranged from 4.3 to 4.8 μg/m3; following this, the range was from 2.8 to 3.1 μg/m3 for Songnim, and from 0.9 to 1.2 μg/m3 for Bupyeong.

참고자료

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