기후변화에 따른 미래 강우유출량 예측을 위한 HEC-HMS 모델 활용 가능성 검토 연구 - 금강 대청댐 유역을 대상으로 - (Application of the HEC-HMS Model for Prediction of Future Rainfall Runoff in the Daecheong Dam Basin of the Geum River)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기후변화학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국기후변화학회지 / 11권 / 6호 / 609 ~ 619페이지
· 저자명 : 김윤지, 유지은, 이경일, 성현찬, 전성우

초록

In Korea, where more than half of annual precipitation (55%, 653.9 mm) occurs during the rainy season (June ~ September), it is difficult to efficiently store and manage water resources. These challenges are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, the impact of which was demonstrated in the summer of 2020 in the form of an unprecedented long rainy season. The purpose of this study is to help establish efficient future water resource management and water-related disaster prevention measures in response to climate change. Application of the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System) model was evaluated for simulation of rainfall runoff for the Daecheong Dam basin. During model set-up, parameter values for loss, transform and routing methods were calculated based on land cover/land use status and soil type. The calibration results for rainfall runoff at Junction-22 for the year of 2008 showed an excellent Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value of 0.732, proving the high accuracy of the model. Simulation results for runoff volume at the same junction in 2017 using calibrated parameter values showed an acceptable NSE value of 0.535. Thus, the overall model efficiency of HEC-HMS was validated. The results of a pilot simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff volume under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 for the year 2050 forecast potential exacerbation of the seasonality in precipitation, in addition to showing a dissimilar pattern from the present, suggesting potential water management issues. Since future management methods should take into account the intensity and frequency of precipitation during the dry and rainy seasons, which vary due to climate change, validation of the HEC-HMS as a tool for predicting runoff volume in the mid- to long-term future is important.

영어초록

In Korea, where more than half of annual precipitation (55%, 653.9 mm) occurs during the rainy season (June ~ September), it is difficult to efficiently store and manage water resources. These challenges are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, the impact of which was demonstrated in the summer of 2020 in the form of an unprecedented long rainy season. The purpose of this study is to help establish efficient future water resource management and water-related disaster prevention measures in response to climate change. Application of the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System) model was evaluated for simulation of rainfall runoff for the Daecheong Dam basin. During model set-up, parameter values for loss, transform and routing methods were calculated based on land cover/land use status and soil type. The calibration results for rainfall runoff at Junction-22 for the year of 2008 showed an excellent Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value of 0.732, proving the high accuracy of the model. Simulation results for runoff volume at the same junction in 2017 using calibrated parameter values showed an acceptable NSE value of 0.535. Thus, the overall model efficiency of HEC-HMS was validated. The results of a pilot simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff volume under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 for the year 2050 forecast potential exacerbation of the seasonality in precipitation, in addition to showing a dissimilar pattern from the present, suggesting potential water management issues. Since future management methods should take into account the intensity and frequency of precipitation during the dry and rainy seasons, which vary due to climate change, validation of the HEC-HMS as a tool for predicting runoff volume in the mid- to long-term future is important.

참고자료

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