기후 스트레스 테스트 기반 댐 이수 취약성 평가 연구 (Vulnerability assessment for dam based on climate stress test)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기후변화학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국기후변화학회지 / 14권 / 6호 / 1013 ~ 1025페이지
· 저자명 : 김경민, 김주호, 임동진, 이기호, 고명준, 조지현

초록

Due to climate change, disasters such as floods and droughts are occurring frequently. As temperatures and precipitation increase and the number of rainy days decreases, preemptive action measures against floods and droughts are needed. In Korea, most runoff occurs in the flood season (June to September), and runoff varies considerably among different years (ME, 2021), with the annual minimum and maximum runoff occurring in 1998 (40.6 billion m3 ) and 2003(129.3 billion m3 ). The water supply capacity and dam size of multipurpose dams have been reviewed by analyzing water supply reliability based on hydrology and the economic environment at the time of dam construction. There are no standards for calculation of water supply reliability in Korea, and research on water supply reliability and vulnerability for water supply based on various scenarios considering climate factors is insufficient. The objective of this study is to create discharges for climate stress scenarios according to changes in temperature and precipitation and to analyze changes in water supply reliability (durational) and rate of vulnerability for the Chungju, Yongdam, Seomjingang and Hapcheon dams. The analysis period was set as the past period (1995 ~ 2022) and future periods (2041 ~ 2060 and 2081 ~ 2100). To evaluate dam vulnerability according to temperature and precipitation, 1,891 climate stress scenarios were created in which temperature was changed by 1°C from 0 to 3°C and precipitation was changed by 1% from 70% to 130%. To calculate the simulated discharge for each scenario, the IHACRES model was used. The change in water supply reliability(durational) affected by precipitation was more significant than the change by temperature, and Hapcheon Dam was more sensitive to both temperature and precipitation than other dams. In Korea, where seasonal and regional rainfall variation is dramatic, prediction of various temperature and precipitation changes is difficult. This study based on climate stress test has potential to be expanded not only in terms of water supply management but also in terms of flood and water environment policy. These results can be used to establish the direction and standards for water supply reliability in an environment in which climate factors are considered.

영어초록

Due to climate change, disasters such as floods and droughts are occurring frequently. As temperatures and precipitation increase and the number of rainy days decreases, preemptive action measures against floods and droughts are needed. In Korea, most runoff occurs in the flood season (June to September), and runoff varies considerably among different years (ME, 2021), with the annual minimum and maximum runoff occurring in 1998 (40.6 billion m3 ) and 2003(129.3 billion m3 ). The water supply capacity and dam size of multipurpose dams have been reviewed by analyzing water supply reliability based on hydrology and the economic environment at the time of dam construction. There are no standards for calculation of water supply reliability in Korea, and research on water supply reliability and vulnerability for water supply based on various scenarios considering climate factors is insufficient. The objective of this study is to create discharges for climate stress scenarios according to changes in temperature and precipitation and to analyze changes in water supply reliability (durational) and rate of vulnerability for the Chungju, Yongdam, Seomjingang and Hapcheon dams. The analysis period was set as the past period (1995 ~ 2022) and future periods (2041 ~ 2060 and 2081 ~ 2100). To evaluate dam vulnerability according to temperature and precipitation, 1,891 climate stress scenarios were created in which temperature was changed by 1°C from 0 to 3°C and precipitation was changed by 1% from 70% to 130%. To calculate the simulated discharge for each scenario, the IHACRES model was used. The change in water supply reliability(durational) affected by precipitation was more significant than the change by temperature, and Hapcheon Dam was more sensitive to both temperature and precipitation than other dams. In Korea, where seasonal and regional rainfall variation is dramatic, prediction of various temperature and precipitation changes is difficult. This study based on climate stress test has potential to be expanded not only in terms of water supply management but also in terms of flood and water environment policy. These results can be used to establish the direction and standards for water supply reliability in an environment in which climate factors are considered.

참고자료

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