2004년 미국 대통령 선거에서의 히스패닉 계의 영향력 검토 (An Examination of Hispanic Influence in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 역사교육학회
· 수록지 정보 : 역사교육논집 / 53호 / 351 ~ 389페이지
· 저자명 : 김진웅

초록

This study analyzes the impacts of Hispanic votes on the outcome of the 2004 presidential election in terms of implications of their share of the overall eligible electorate and voters, their influence in the states where most Hispanics reside, and the influence of Bush's electoral gains on the result of the election. The main observations can be summed up as follows.
In the 2004 presidential election, expectation of increasing Hispanic influence built from a recognition that the Hispanic population had been growing at a rapid speed ultimately proved to be incorrect. Hispanics might constitute a significant and growing share of the population, but this was no guarantee that political representation was inevitable or even likely. Hispanics made up 14.3 percent of the U.S. population and 12.6 percent of the voting-age population. But in the election they constituted a very small share of the overall electorate and voters than they did of the national population. Specifically, their actual turnout rates (6.0%) were deplorably low. Hispanics were the least likely of three major racial/ethnic groups to participate in the voting. Actual Hispanic political power did not match the size of the Hispanic population. In terms of the number of the eligible electorate and actual votes, Hispanics could not determine national outcomes or influence the 2004 presidential election.
In the every U.S. presidential election, under the state-level “winner-take-all system,” most campaign resources have been focused on the states perceived to be competitive in the race for Electoral College votes. The 2004 presidential election was no exception. The Republican and Democratic campaigns focused on a handful of battleground states--largely states with few Latinos. In other words, they neglected the voters in the states with the most Hispanic residents: California, Texas, New York, and Illinois. Even in the battleground states, including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico, electoral impact of Hispanics was minimal, because they still constituted a minority ethnic group in the states. In particular, the winner-take-all nature of awarding Electoral College votes largely eliminated any argument about Hispanic influence on the state-level voting.
In the 2004 presidential election, President Bush garnered about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. The Bush campaign focused, in part, on a Hispanic electorate in flux that might result in considerable electoral gains for him. It made considerable effort to mobilize religiously observant Hispanic voters. As a result, he improved his performance among Hispanic voters, the gains appeared mainly among a major segment of the Hispanic electorate--Protestants, particularly Evangelical Protestants. But his unprecedented improvement among the Hispanic electorate had little impact on the outcome of the election.
In sum, Hispanic votes were not significant to the outcome of the 2004 presidential race between George W. Bush and John Kerry. The national election did not change the role that Hispanic voters had played in the past presidential elections. Certainly, Hispanic influence was much limited in the 2004 election.

영어초록

This study analyzes the impacts of Hispanic votes on the outcome of the 2004 presidential election in terms of implications of their share of the overall eligible electorate and voters, their influence in the states where most Hispanics reside, and the influence of Bush's electoral gains on the result of the election. The main observations can be summed up as follows.
In the 2004 presidential election, expectation of increasing Hispanic influence built from a recognition that the Hispanic population had been growing at a rapid speed ultimately proved to be incorrect. Hispanics might constitute a significant and growing share of the population, but this was no guarantee that political representation was inevitable or even likely. Hispanics made up 14.3 percent of the U.S. population and 12.6 percent of the voting-age population. But in the election they constituted a very small share of the overall electorate and voters than they did of the national population. Specifically, their actual turnout rates (6.0%) were deplorably low. Hispanics were the least likely of three major racial/ethnic groups to participate in the voting. Actual Hispanic political power did not match the size of the Hispanic population. In terms of the number of the eligible electorate and actual votes, Hispanics could not determine national outcomes or influence the 2004 presidential election.
In the every U.S. presidential election, under the state-level “winner-take-all system,” most campaign resources have been focused on the states perceived to be competitive in the race for Electoral College votes. The 2004 presidential election was no exception. The Republican and Democratic campaigns focused on a handful of battleground states--largely states with few Latinos. In other words, they neglected the voters in the states with the most Hispanic residents: California, Texas, New York, and Illinois. Even in the battleground states, including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico, electoral impact of Hispanics was minimal, because they still constituted a minority ethnic group in the states. In particular, the winner-take-all nature of awarding Electoral College votes largely eliminated any argument about Hispanic influence on the state-level voting.
In the 2004 presidential election, President Bush garnered about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. The Bush campaign focused, in part, on a Hispanic electorate in flux that might result in considerable electoral gains for him. It made considerable effort to mobilize religiously observant Hispanic voters. As a result, he improved his performance among Hispanic voters, the gains appeared mainly among a major segment of the Hispanic electorate--Protestants, particularly Evangelical Protestants. But his unprecedented improvement among the Hispanic electorate had little impact on the outcome of the election.
In sum, Hispanic votes were not significant to the outcome of the 2004 presidential race between George W. Bush and John Kerry. The national election did not change the role that Hispanic voters had played in the past presidential elections. Certainly, Hispanic influence was much limited in the 2004 election.

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