환율이 여행수지에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

소개

환율이 여행수지에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

목차

제1장 서론············································································································2
1. 연구의 배경과 연구목적··················································································2
2. 연구의 방법과 연구의 구성·············································································2


제2장 이론적 배경·····························································································3-4
1. 환율과 여행수지······························································································3
2. 환율과 여행수지에 관한 선행연구·······························································3-4


제3장 환율과 여행수지의 실증분석·································································4-10
1. 자료수집·········································································································4
2. 변수의 정의····································································································4
3. 변수의 데이터 값························································································5-8
4. 기술통계량··································································································8-9
5. 회귀분석····································································································9-10


제4장 요약 및 한계점·························································································11
1. 요약 및 결론·································································································11
2. 연구의 한계점 및 연구방향···········································································11



참고문헌··············································································································12

본문내용

제1장 서론

1. 연구의 배경과 연구목적
한국은 수출주도형 고도성장을 이룩하였으나 내수시장의 협소함으로 인한 해외 시장의 의존과 기술의 해외의존 그리고 서비스산업의 경쟁력 낙후가 서비스수지 적자 구조를 형성하게 되었다. 또한 정책적으로도 무역외지급 제한이 완화되었고, 1989년부터 해외여행 자유화조치가 내려져 1990년 이후 서비스수지 적자 기조가 현재화 된 것이다. 또한 최근의 서비스 수지 적자 확대는 이와 같은 적자 기조의 바탕 위에 주5일 근무제 확대, 세계화 및 기업경영, 글로벌화의 급속한 진전 등 제도적 환경적 요인과 원화 절상, 소득증가, 국제화물운임 하락 등과 같은 소득적 ·경기적 요인이 가세한 데 기인한 것이다. 특히 서비스수지 적자 중 여행수지 적자가 차지하는 비율은 60%이상으로 이는 경상수지 흑자 폭을 줄이는 주요인으로 취급을 받게 되었다. 본 논문은 환율이 서비스수지 중 여행수지에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 알아보기 위한 것이다. 만일 환율과 여행수지 사이에 인과관계가 존재한다면 환율을 예측하여 여행수지 적자를 줄일 수 있다는 추론도 할 수 있다. 또한 환율을 예측하면 여행수지 적자 감소뿐만 아니라 궁극적으로는 서비스수지 전체가 증대될 것이라는 추론을 할 수 있다.

2. 연구의 방법과 연구의 구성
연구의 방법은 단순회귀분석을 이용한다. 먼저 환율과 여행수지의 경우 환율의 변동에 따라 여행자들의 수에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 상관관계를 검정하고 설명한다. 연구는 총 5장으로 구성되며 제1장은 연구의

참고자료

· 외환수급통계 : 원화의 대미달러 환율 통계자료, 한국은행, 1990~2010 http://kostat.go.kr/wnsearchNew/search.jsp
· 국제수지통계 : 경상수지(S.A.) , 한국은행, 1980~2010
· http://kostat.go.kr/wnsearchNew/search.jsp
· 박유미, “광고비가 민간최종소비지출에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구”, 2010.12
· 한진희, “환율변동성이 서비스수지에 미치는 영향”, 2007
· A. Gerakis, "Effects of Exchange Rate Devaluation and Revaluation on Receipts from Tourism", IMF Staff Papers, IMF, 1965
· D. Chadee and Z. Mieozkowski, "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of the Exchange Rate on Canadian Tourism" Journal of Travel Research, Vol.26, No1. 1987
· Rebecca Summary, "Estimation of Tourism Demand by multivariable regression analysis", Tourism Management, 1987
· M. Uysal and J. L. Crompton, "Determination of Demand for international tourist flows to Turkey", Tourism Management, 1984
· H.P.Gray, "The Demand for international travel by the United States and Canada", International Economic Review, Vol.17, January, 1966
· Christin A. Martin and Stephen F. Witt, "Forecasting future trend in European tourist demand", Tourist Review, vol. 40, 1985