지역 내 편의점 출점의 효과: 2010-2015 경제총조사 자료를 이용한 분석 (Effects of opening convenience stores in the region: analysis using data from the 2010-2015 economic census)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국유통학회
· 수록지 정보 : 유통연구 / 26권 / 1호 / 1 ~ 22페이지
· 저자명 : 조영재, 최동욱

초록

본 연구에서는 1인가구의 증가에 따른 소비행태 변화의 한 측면으로 편의점의 증가에 주목하고 이러한 편의점의 증가가 지역내 소매업의 고용과 매출에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 분석을 위해 통계청의 2010년과 2015년 경제총조사의 소매업체 자료와 업체별 위치정보를 결합한 자료를 활용하였다. 우선 시군구별로 편의점이 50%이상 증가한 지역은 30% 미만인 지역에 비해 유의하게 고용이 8.7% 증가한 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 편의점 증가에 따라 점포당 고용은 감소하는 것으로 나타났지만 편의점 수의 증가가 이를 압도하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 편의점은 지역의 임시일용직 증가에 기여하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 편의점은 해당 지역의 고용과 매출에 있어서 대형마트와 보완적인 관계를 갖지만 SSM과는 대체성을 보였다. 마지막으로 편의점 근접출점의 효과를 보면 상권 300m 이내에 경쟁 편의점이 증가할 때 편의점의 고용이 0.2%감소하고 매출도 0.15% 감소하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 결과는 양질의 고용증가를 위한 정책과 더불어 편의점 근접출점 규제와 관련한 논의에 시사점을 줄 수 있다.

영어초록

This research focuses on the increase in convenience stores in terms of changes in distribution structure resulting from changes in consumption behavior and the impact of these changes on local industry employment and sales. For this analysis, we use 2010 and 2015 economic census data to estimate the impact of the increase in the share of convenience stores between the two periods on the level of retail employment and sales in the region. we also look for the impact of proximity issues as the number of convenience stores increases.
Korea generally has a small business-oriented distribution structure and the entry of large discount stores into the market was made later than that of the United States and Japan (Cho et al., 2015; Suk Kyung Kim, 2015). Recently, the proportion of large discount stores and department stores has been stagnant, and the proportion of convenience stores and Super Supermarkets(SSM) has been increasing. [Figure 1] shows the increase in convenience stores in Korea, from 16,937 in 2010 to 28,994 in 2015, an increase of about 71.2% over the five-year period.
The increase in convenience stores can be judged as a result of changes in population and household characteristics, resulting in changes in consumption behavior, which also affect sales and employment in other retail sectors, such as large discount stores and small and medium supermarkets.
In this research, we focus on the increase in convenience stores in order to have implications for the impact of these changes on employment and sales in retail. Specifically, we look for whether the increasing number of convenience stores is i) increasing employment in the region, ii) the increasing share of temporary workers, the iii) the substitution and completeness of other distribution channels in sales and employment, and the iv) the impact of increased competition between convenience stores on employment and sales in convenience stores.
We use the data from the Economic Census of Statistics Korea (2010 and 2015) to provide answers to these problems. The data collection was constructed and analyzed by adding location information of coordinate types to the information of each entity included in the data.
First of all, the data is compiled by county, and then the difference-in-differences (DID) appreach is applied to analyze the employment effect of the region due to the increase in convenience stores. In order to examine the causality between the increase of convenience stores and employment in the region, the area where the number of convenience stores rapidly increased based on the growth rate of single-person households during 2010 and 2015 is set as the treatment group, and those that did not are set as the control group. It was set and compared.
In terms of demand structure, the treatment group and the control group are classified based on the increase rate of single-person households, focusing on the fact that changes in consumption characteristics, such as the increase in single-person households, are a major factor in the increase of convenience stores. According to the Korea National Statistical Office, the national average increase rate of single-person households in 2015 was about 22%, and from 2010 to 2015, the number of single-person households increased by about 25.6%. Taking this into account, a 30% increase in the number of convenience stores is set as the baseline to control the effect of the increase in single-person households. Also, between 2010 and 2015, areas where convenience stores increased by more than 50% are set as the treatment group, and areas that increased by less than 30% are set as the control group.
We use the following regression analysis model to estimate the size and standard error of the average treatment effect (ATE) for the treatment group of increasing convenience stores.
As a result of the analysis, we find that in areas where convenience stores increased at a rate higher than the average increase rate of single-person households, total employment increase by 8.7% compared to areas that did not. In the case of regular workers in the retail industry, in areas where convenience stores increased by more than 50%, the employment of regular workers increase by 11.9% compared to those in the control group. In particular, the increase in temporary workers in the region is closely related to the increase in convenience stores. In the case of temporary workers in the retail industry, in areas where convenience stores increased by more than 50%, the employment of temporary workers increase by 32.7% compared to those in the comparative group. Looking at the detailed retail sector, convenience stores have a complementary relationship with large discount stores, but are independent of department stores and SSMs.
For the robustness analysis, only 6 metropolitan cities were selected and analyzed to limit the characteristics of the treatment group and the control group to more similar groups. As a result of the analysis, when limited counties belonging to six large cities, the total employment increased by about 18.3% in areas where convenience stores increased by 50% or more. Also, by using the location information of each entity, the degree of competition within the effective commercial area (300m) was calculated, and the effect of this on employment and sales of convenience stores was analyzed at the entity level. We apply a fixed-effect panel regression model to estimate the effect of convenience store competition on employment and sales.
We find that the increase in the degree of competition among convenience stores in the region has shown the effect of reducing the employment and sales of convenience stores. These results can be interpreted as meaning that while an increase in convenience stores may increase employment or sales at the local level, competition among convenience stores reduces employment and sales at individual convenience stores if they are concentrated within effective commercial districts.
This research has a distinctive point in that it pays attention to the increasing effect of convenience stores, unlike previous studies that are mainly interested in the opening of large discount stores. In particular, the relevance of the increase in temporary workers or the identification of alternative complementarity with other retail sectors in employment can have important implications for local employment policies. In addition, it can be said that the contribution of this study is to examine the effects of proximity stores using the location information of convenience stores.

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