정전협정체제와 새로운 한반도 평화체제로의 전환 조건 (Korean Armistice Agreement System and Conditions for Transition to a New Peace Regime in Korean Peninsula)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 세종연구소
· 수록지 정보 : 국가전략 / 29권 / 4호 / 119 ~ 138페이지
· 저자명 : 박기철, 주재우

초록

지난 70년간 한반도에서 남북한의 대규모 군사충돌을 예방하고 전쟁을 억제하였다는 측면에서 정전협정체제는 실질적인 기여를 하여왔다. 2018년 남북한의 화해무드가 조성되고 북미정상회담이 성사되면서 우리 국민 10명 중에 7명은 정전협정체제를 종전선언을 통한 새로운 평화체제로 전환해야 한다는 여론이 확산되었다. 하지만 전문가들은 종전선언이 유엔사령부의 존재 근거를 약화시키고 한미 동맹을 훼손시킬 수 있으며 미국 내 주한미군 철수 여론을 확산시켜 안보 불안을 초래할 수 있다는 우려를 나타내었다. 2023년 현재 북한의 핵위협이 고도화 되면서 7차 핵실험이 임박해 있고 미사일 발사, 드론 침투 등 도발이 이어지면서 한반도 안보상황은 2018년과는 비교할 수 없을 정도로 긴장이 고조되고 있다. 이 글에서는 지난 70년 정전협정체제를 평가하고 워싱턴 선언으로 한미일 안보동맹이 확장되는 시점에서 정전협정체제가 가지고 있는 함의, 한반도 정전협정의 특수성, 북한이 주장하는 종전선언과 나아가 한반도 평화협정 체결이 어떠한 위험성을 가지고 있는지 알아보고 새로운 평화체제로의 전환이 필요하다면 어떠한 조건하에 논의될 수 있는지에 대하여 밝힐 것이다.

영어초록

Over the course of seven decades, the armistice agreement system has played a significant role in averting large-scale military confrontations between North and South Korea while preventing the resumption of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula. The year 2018 marked a pivotal moment when the prospects for reconciliation between North and South Korea gained momentum, coinciding with the historic North Korea-U.S. summit. During this period, a noteworthy shift in public sentiment emerged, with seven out of ten Korean citizens expressing the view that the armistice agreement system should be replaced by a new framework for peace, achieved through a formal declaration of the end of the Korean War. However, it is essential to acknowledge the reservations articulated by experts regarding the implications of such a declaration. Concerns have been raised that an official end to the Korean War may undermine the foundation of the United Nations Command (UNC), potentially jeopardizing its continued existence. Additionally, there is apprehension about the potential adverse effects on the robust security alliance between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States. Such concerns have the potential to propagate discussions in the United States regarding the withdrawal of American troops from the Korean Peninsula, thereby introducing a heightened element of security instability. Fast forward to the year 2023, the security landscape on the Korean Peninsula has evolved in a manner significantly more precarious than it stood in 2018. North Korea's nuclear threat has escalated, with indications of an imminent seventh nuclear test. Provocations, including missile launches and drone infiltrations, persist, contributing to an increasingly tense security environment. This article undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy and impact of the armistice agreement system over the past seven decades. It seeks to elucidate the multifaceted implications associated with the existing armistice framework, particularly in light of the evolving security dynamics involving South Korea, the United States, and Japan, as exemplified by the Washington Declaration. The distinct characteristics of the Korean Peninsula Armistice Agreement are examined, alongside the North Korean advocacy for a formal declaration of war's end and the potential culmination of a Korean Peninsula Peace Agreement. Within this analytical framework, we aim to delineate the inherent risks inherent in these developments. Furthermore, if the transition to a novel peace regime is deemed necessary, we endeavor to elucidate the precise conditions under which such a transition should be earnestly considered and pursued.

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