중국 성급단위 지역경제 불확실성 측정지수 개발에 관한 연구 -실물경제영역을 중심으로- (The Study on the Development of the Uncertainty Measurement Index for Chinese Regional Economics)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한중사회과학학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한중사회과학연구 / 15권 / 2호 / 79 ~ 103페이지
· 저자명 : 이기영

초록

Uncertainty in the Chinese real economy has increased significantly due to the wide-spread volatility of global economics since the financial crisis, the recent slowdown in China’ economic growth, and changes in economic policy such as restructuring. Increased uncertainty in Chinese economics can cause economic impact in China, and if that occurs, Korea can be impacted significantly due to its high dependency on the Chinese economy. Therefore, the development of an index that can effectively and continuously observe and assess the economic uncertainty of China has a very important meaning both realistically and academically.
However, considering the characteristics of the Chinese economy, which is composed of 31 provincially administrated units with heterogeneous economic characteristics, the index for measuring the national average or the situation of the specific region may cause a distorted result in assessing the uncertainty of the whole of China in terms of effective developing uncertainty. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to construct an index to measure the uncertainty of the regional economies of the 31 provincially administrated units in China.
Before creating the index, an indicator system was constructed to measure the real economic uncertainty in China. The indicator system consists of five areas, regional business cycles, business cycles by primary, secondary, tertiary industries, adequacy of fixed asset investment, inflation, and government debt ratio. The 7 indicators in these 5 areas showed a statistically significant correlation with the regional economic uncertainty derived from the GARCH model. Principal component analysis was used to create the index that best describes the 7 indicators and it was also used for this study. As a result, the panel regression analysis showed that the index created in this study has a statistically significant positive effect on the regional economic uncertainty.
In addition, the impact response analysis, which was conducted to examine the response of the regional economic uncertainty depending on the impact of the created index over time, showed that the regional economic uncertainty has a statistically significant positive response at one year after the index impact.

영어초록

Uncertainty in the Chinese real economy has increased significantly due to the wide-spread volatility of global economics since the financial crisis, the recent slowdown in China’ economic growth, and changes in economic policy such as restructuring. Increased uncertainty in Chinese economics can cause economic impact in China, and if that occurs, Korea can be impacted significantly due to its high dependency on the Chinese economy. Therefore, the development of an index that can effectively and continuously observe and assess the economic uncertainty of China has a very important meaning both realistically and academically.
However, considering the characteristics of the Chinese economy, which is composed of 31 provincially administrated units with heterogeneous economic characteristics, the index for measuring the national average or the situation of the specific region may cause a distorted result in assessing the uncertainty of the whole of China in terms of effective developing uncertainty. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to construct an index to measure the uncertainty of the regional economies of the 31 provincially administrated units in China.
Before creating the index, an indicator system was constructed to measure the real economic uncertainty in China. The indicator system consists of five areas, regional business cycles, business cycles by primary, secondary, tertiary industries, adequacy of fixed asset investment, inflation, and government debt ratio. The 7 indicators in these 5 areas showed a statistically significant correlation with the regional economic uncertainty derived from the GARCH model. Principal component analysis was used to create the index that best describes the 7 indicators and it was also used for this study. As a result, the panel regression analysis showed that the index created in this study has a statistically significant positive effect on the regional economic uncertainty.
In addition, the impact response analysis, which was conducted to examine the response of the regional economic uncertainty depending on the impact of the created index over time, showed that the regional economic uncertainty has a statistically significant positive response at one year after the index impact.

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