美 바이든 행정부의 ‘對中정책’과 ‘北中관계’ 동학: 美中 ‘경쟁과 갈등’을 중심으로 (Dynamics of the Biden Administration’s ‘Policy toward China’ and ‘North Korea-China Relations’: Focusing on “Competition and Conflict” between the US and China)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 고려대학교세종캠퍼스 공공정책연구소
· 수록지 정보 : Journal of North Korea Studies / 8권 / 2호 / 53 ~ 75페이지
· 저자명 : 김남성

초록

2021년 출범한 바이든 행정부의 대중(對中)정책은 외교적 경쟁을 넘어 군사적 경쟁을 전제로 하는 것으로 보인다. 본(本) 논문은 ‘미중관계’가 트럼프 정부에 이어 ‘경쟁과 갈등’이 지속되고 심화될 때 ‘북중관계’는 어떤 양상을 띠게 될지를 전망하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해서 비대칭동맹인 북중관계의 과거 동학(動學)을 살펴보고, 북중관계가 어떤 변수에 따라 변화했는지 살펴볼 것이다.
결론적으로 북중관계는 ‘중국의 대(對)패권국 관계’에 따라 가장 큰 영향을 받아왔다고 볼 수 있다. 본(本) 논문은 중국이 지난 70년 동안, 특히 북한의 6차례 핵실험에도 불구하고 주로 ‘당대의 패권국과 관계’에 따라 북중동맹을 관리해왔다는 것을 보여줄 것이다. 이는 비대칭 동맹의 약소동맹국인 북한의 지정학적 가치가 ‘중국과 패권국 관계의 갈등’ 정도에 따라 대체로 비례하기 때문이다. 따라서 현재처럼 미중관계가 ‘경쟁과 갈등’이 지속된다면, 중국의 ‘동맹안보딜레마’는 커지게 되며 이는 중국이 북한의 잇단 도발에도 불구하고 북한 김정은 정권을 지원하고 동맹관계를 강화할 수밖에 없다는 전망이 가능하다.
이는 우파 보수층의 지지를 받고 있는 윤석열 정부에게 ‘한미일’ 동맹 강화 요구가 높아지고, 이에 따른 국내 여론 분열, 중국과 미국의 상호압박이 이어질 수 있다는 어려움으로 작용할 수 있다.

영어초록

The Biden administration's policy toward China seems to presuppose military competition beyond diplomatic competition. The purpose of this paper is to predict what kind of “North Korea-China relations” will take when the “competition and conflict” between the US and China continues and deepens following the Trump administration. To this end, we will examine the past dynamics of North Korea-China relations, an asymmetric alliance, and examine what variables the North Korea-China alliance has changed.
In conclusion, it can be said that North Korea-China relations have been most affected by 'China's relations with hegemony'. This paper will show that China has managed the North Korea-China alliance over the past 70 years, especially in the face of North Korea's six nuclear tests, mainly according to 'relationships with the hegemon of the time'. This is because the geopolitical value of North Korea, a weak ally of the asymmetric alliance, is largely proportional to the degree of 'conflict between China and the hegemon'. Therefore, if the 'competition and conflict' in the US-China relationship continues as it is now, China's 'alliance security dilemma' will increase, and it is highly likely that China will support the North Korean Kim Jong un regime and strengthen their alliance despite North Korea’s successive provocations.
This can act as a difficulty in that the Yun Seok-yeol administration, which is supported by the right-wing conservatives, is increasingly demanding to strengthen the “US-South Korea-Japan” alliance, resulting in division of domestic public opinion and mutual pressure between China and the United States.

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