서민금융기관의 대출금리, 비용구조 및 수익성에 관한 연구 : 해외의 영리 마이크로 파이넌스 기관을 활용한 실증분석 (A Behavioral Model of Lenders for Less Creditworthy Individuals : Theoretical Model and Empirical Test of Interest Rate, Cost Structure and Profitability)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국금융학회
· 수록지 정보 : 금융연구 / 26권 / 2호 / 59 ~ 108페이지
· 저자명 : 정영석, 이기영

초록

서민금융이 극복해야 할 가장 큰 구조적인 문제는 불완전한 정보로 인한 시장의 비효율성 그리고 소액거래로 인한 높은 거래비용으로 요약할 수 있다. 본고는 불완전한 정보하에서 서민금융 기관의 행태와 대출시장을 분석할 수 있는 경제학적 모형을 도출하였다. 그리고 대출금리결정, 대손비용, 수익성 등에 대한 이론적 행태모형을 구성하고 해외의 은행 및 비은행금융기관 형태의 마이크로파이넌스 기관들을 대상으로 실증분석을 하였다. 실증분석 결과 개별 금융기관의 특성을 반영하지 않는 회귀분석에서는 대출금리의 인상에 따라 대손비용율이 증가하는 약한 형태의 역선택 뿐만 아니라 금리가 일정 수준을 넘으면 이윤율이 낮아지는 강한 형태의 역선택 현상이 유의하게 관찰되었다. 그러나 개별 금융기관의 특성을 포함하는 패널회귀분석에서는 대출금리가 대손비용율과 이윤율에 미치는 영향이 상대적으로 약하고 유의성도 낮아지는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 서민금융시장의 신용리스크가 매우 높을 것이라는 일반적인 우려와는 달리 분석 대상기관의 6년간 평균 대손비용율이 1.5%~2.5% 수준이었고, ROA도 평균 1% 이상으로 양호한 것으로 나타났다. 종합적으로 판단할 때, 정보의 불완전성은 공급측면에서 극복하지 못할 정도의 큰 구조적 장애 요인은 아니며, 시장기능을 활용해 충분히 극복할 수 있다는 가능성을 보여주었다. 그리고 서민 대출금리를 결정하는 가장 중요한 요인은 높은 운영비용으로 나타났으며, 운영비용은 차입자당 평균대출금액 및 규모의 경제 변수에 의해 가장 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 서민 대출금리를 낮출 수 있는 가장 유효한 수단은 금융기관별로 적정한 규모의 경제 확보와 경영의 효율화를 통한 운영비용의 절감으로 보여진다. 아울러 시장의 경쟁여건과 신용정보 제도의 발달도 대출금리를 낮추는 긍정적인 효과가 있는 것으로 추정되었다.

영어초록

Structural issues in the lending market for low income and less creditworthy individuals could be summarized into two topics. The first is market inefficiency, that is, adverse selection and moral hazard caused by imperfect information, and the second is high unit cost of loans to service customers with small loan amount. Although there were many researches about financial access and availability of credit for less creditworthy individuals recently in Korea, they focused mostly on the institutional aspect of the lending market, and rigorous economic analyses were not performed enough to support policies in that area. The purpose of this paper is to provide an empirical knowledge of this special lending market, based on a theoretical model of lenders’ behavior. The theoretical model is developed by extending the historical research of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) on credit rationing to the specific decision making process of lenders under imperfect credit information. Based on the lending market model, authors test the model using international commercial microfinance institutions, and interpret the results to enhance understanding of the lending market for low income and less creditworthy individuals.
Economic models of loan loss rate, interest rate and profitability are theoretically derived, and they are tested as a simultaneous equation system. Also, cost structure of the loan is analyzed focused on the impact of economies of scale in operating cost. Although the empirical test is performed with data from international microfinance institutions, the analysis demonstrates a possibility of developing the special lending market based on commercial principles, and provides lessons for the related policy in the area, as well as a rigorous test of the theoretical model.
In chapter 2, under the assumption of imperfect information, a theoretical model of lenders behavior is developed for lending interest rate, loan loss rate, and profitability. The models are developed by applying the original model of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) on credit rationing. But it is extended by incorporating lender’s decision making process under imperfect information with specific consideration of important variables in banking, such as error rate in the credit decision making process, default rate, recovery rate, and market competition etc.
Chapter 3 and 4 summarize previous researches in this area, and describe data and methodology of this research. Most of the previous researches came from microfinance industry in relation with its commercialization and outreach. But despite their significant contribution, they have limitation in some areas, such as the scope of data and method of empirical test. To address those issues, this paper adopts a differentiated approach. At first, different from the previous researches that estimated interest rate and loan loss rate as separate variables, this paper builds theoretical and empirical models as a simultaneous equation system, and adopts an appropriate econometric methodology. Secondly, previous researches on microfinance industry included all types of institutions including small NGOs. But, this paper uses only for-profit bank and nonbank financial institutions in order to focus on the economic behavior and opportunities in the market. Thirdly, a panel data is created to cover 182 microfinance institutions over six year period from 2005 to 2010 with Mix’s public data. Six year sample which is consistent with one credit cycle will provide an unbiased view of those financial institutions’ performance in the long term. Also, this data set makes possible a panel regression methodology, which is more useful than a simple cross sectional approach adopted by other researches.
In Chapter 5, results of the empirical test are summarized. Using the panel data, two approaches are taken. The first is a regression analysis on the simply pooled data without consideration of uniqueness of each individual institution. The second is a random effect panel regression which incorporates unique values of each individual institution in each regression. The regression analysis of the simply pooled data shows an evidence of strong form of adverse selection, that is, a decreasing profitability of loans over a threshold interest rate, as well weak form adverse section, that is, an increasing loan loss rate with interest rate. But, in the random effect panel regression, the effect of interest rate on both loan loss rate and profitability is reduced to only marginally significant level. Also, the average loan loss rate of all sample turned out to be in the range of 1.5~2.5%, and average ROA was over 1%, both of which are better than general perception of the lending market for the poor. Based on those findings, authors contend that market inefficiencies caused by imperfect information is not such a serious barrier in extending financial access for the low income borrowers, at least in the observable range of lending interest rates. On the other hand, the most important factor in the high interest rates of small loans for low income borrowers was found to be the high operating cost, and the determinants of operating cost were analyzed focused on the impact of economies scales in two dimensions, that is, average loan size and number of outstanding loans. In addition to the average loan size, the number of loans outstanding was proved to have very significant impact of economies of scales, over a size of an institution which had been believed to have a maximum benefit of economies of scale. Also, market competition which was proxied by the ratio of total commercial bank credit over GNP was proved to reduce lending rate directly and indirectly through operating cost.
Despite all the favorable findings to support development of credit market for low income borrowers based on market mechanism, very high volatility of loan loss rate and ROA should be seriously noted in the management and supervision of those financial institutions focusing on lending for less creditworthy and low income customers.

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