China, the Nuclear Problem, and Prospect of the Peninsular: Persistent Dilemmas with a Promising Future

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 부산대학교 중국전략연구소
· 수록지 정보 : Journal of China Studies / 8호 / 315 ~ 344페이지
· 저자명 : Shi Yinhong

초록

China’s role in the North Korean nuclear issue has undergone major change in recent years. In the initial years of the Six-Party Talks, China’s role was central as facilitator, arbiter, and host of the diplomatic process. However, since 2007 the U.S.-North Korea bilateral relationship has been the dominant factor in Korean nuclear diplomacy, largely marginalizing China and the other three powers involved in these efforts. As a result, China has been confined principally to hosting the talks and to rubber-stamping agreements already achieved between Washington and Pyongyang. China continues to seek an uneasy balance among three vital interests: (1) ensuring peace on the peninsula; (2) fostering North Korea’s denuclearization; and (3) seeking to preserve a continued relationship with North Korea. But it has yet to develop a full strategy for reconciling these interests and managing its policy priorities. However, China has accelerated its economic and political ties with both the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Beijing therefore seems well positioned for the peninsula’s longer-term evolution, including its hopes that North Korea will ultimately move toward a more ‘‘reformist’’ orientation and a much-diminished emphasis on military power in its national strategy. China’s policy efforts on the “parallel friendships” with both DPRK and ROK suggest one major point: Beijing has been pursuing “gently” her long-term interests and influence in the Peninsular while maintaining and expanding the room of future policy options, all with a kind of almost unique patience and stamina. To these, China’s deep involvement in the international efforts to solve the North Korea nuclear problem (including her initiating and sponsoring Six-Party Talks) is also quite advantageous, because it has greatly increased the frequency and intensity of her political intercourses with both Koreas. However, dilemmas in Chinese policymaking persist, with Beijing able to influence but not control the major uncertainties, especially at least those related to North Korea’s short term political future.

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