벤처 평가 및 투자

소개

INFORMS`2000에 발표한 논문입니다.
사례기반추론에 근거한 벤처 투자 의사결정 방법론에관한 연구.

목차

ABSTRACT
1. Introduction
2. Decision Class Analysis and Case Based Reasoning
3. Case Based Reasoning Approach for Venture Investment Decision
4. Case Representation and Retrieval
5. Case Adaptation
6. Conclusions
REFERENCES

본문내용

An application of case-based reasoning is proposed to build an influence diagram for identifying successful new
ventures. The decision to invest in new ventures is characterized by incomplete information and uncertainty, where
some measures of firm performance are quantitative, while some others are substituted by qualitative indicators.
Influence diagrams are used as a model for representing investment decision problems based on incomplete and
uncertain information from a variety of sources. The building of influence diagrams needs much time and efforts and
the resulting model such as a decision model is applicable to only one specific problem. However, some prior
knowledge from the experience to build decision model can be utilized to resolve other similar decision problems.
The basic idea of case-based reasoning is that humans reuse the problem solving experience to solve a new decision.
.
.

참고자료

· Chung, T.Y., J.K. Kim, S.H. Kim (1992). Building an influence diagram in a knowledge-based decision system,
· Expert Systems With Applications 4, 33-44.
· Holtzman, S. (1989). Intelligent Decision Systems Addison-Wesley, MA.
· Howard, R.A. (1984). The used car buyer, in Howard, R.A. & Matheson, J.E. (eds.), Readings on the Principles and
· Applications of Decision Analysis. Vol. II, Strategic Decision Group, Menlo Park, CA.
· Howard, R.A. (1988). Decision analysis: practice and promise, Management Science 34 679-695.
· Kim, J.K. (1991).A Knowledge-Based System for Decision Analysis. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Industrial
· Engineering KAIST, Korea.
· Kolodner, J. (1993). Case-Based Reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, CA,
· Kolodner, J. (1991). Improving Human Decision Making through Case-Based Decision Aiding, AI MAGAZINE
· Summer
· Jain, Bharat and Barin N. Nag, (1996). A decision-support model for investment decisions in new ventures,
· European Journal of Operational Research, 90 473-486.
· Hall, John and Charles W. Hofer, (1993). Venture Capital Decision Criteria in New Venture Evaluation, IEEE
· Engineering Management Review, vol.21, issue 2, 49-59.
· Hall, J., and Hofer, C.W. (1993). Venture capitalists decision criteria and new venture evaluation, Journal of
· Business Ventureing 8(1) 25-42.
· Khan, A.M. (1987). Assessing venturing capital investments with noncompensatory behavioral decision models.
· Journal of Business Venturing 2:193-205.
· Kunkel, S.W., and Hofer, C.W. (1990). Why study the determinants of new venture performance: A literature review
· and rationale. Presented at Academy of Management meetings, San Francisco.
· Lee, J.K. J.K. Kim, and S.H. Kim (1999). A Case-Based Reasoning Approach to Build an Influence Diagram, 5th
· Pacific Asia Conference on Expert Systems, LA.
· MacMillan, I.C., Seigel, R., and Subba Narasimha, P.N. (1985). Criteria used by venture capitalist to evaluate new
· venture proposals. Journal of Business Venturing 1:119-128.
· MacMillan, I.C., Zeman, L., and Subba Narasimha, P.N. (1987). Criteria distinguishing unsuccessful ventures in the
· venture screening process. Journal of Business Venturing 2:123-137.
· Olmsted, S.M. (1984). On Representing and Solving Decision Problems. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Engineering-
· Economic Systems Stanford University.
· Robinson, R.B. (1987). Emerging strategies in the venture capital industry. Journal of Business Venturing 2:53-77.
· Risebeck, C.K. and R.S. Schank (1989). Inside case-based reasoning, Northvale, NJ: Erlbaum
· Sandberg, W.R. (1986). New Venture Performance. Lexington, MA: Lexington.
· Sandberg, W.R., Schweiger, D.M., and Hofer, C.W. (1988). The use of verbal protocols in determing venture
· capitalists decision process. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice Winter: 8-20.
· Timmons, J.A. (1994). New Venture Creation: Entrepreneurship for the 21th Century. Homewood, IL:Trwin.
· Timmons, J.A., Muzyka, D.F., Stevenson, H.H., and Bygrave, W.D. (1987). Opportunity recognition: The core of
· entrepreneurship. Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research 109-123.
· Tybjee, T.T., and Bruno, A.V. (1984). A model of venture capital investment activity. Management Science 30(9):
· 1051-1056.
· Wells,W.A. (1974). Venture capital decision-making. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie
· Mellon University.
· Zacharakis, A.L., and Meyer, G.D. (1995). The venture capital decision: Understanding process versus outcome.
· Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research 465-478.