기후변화가 쌀 생산성과 가변성에 미치는 영향: 베트남을 사례로 (Climate change impacts on rice yield and yield variability: The case of Vietnam)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기후변화학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국기후변화학회지 / 16권 / 2호 / 209 ~ 226페이지
· 저자명 : 용희원, 권오상

초록

This study combines Vietnam’s rice production data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) with climate data to estimate the stochastic impact of climate on rice productivity (yield) in Vietnam. The analysis utilizes the Just-Pope production function to assess how annual weather fluctuations or cross-sectional variance in long-term climate affect the expected value and variability of rice productivity. Also, the impact of climate change on current productivity levels is measured using a simulation method. The estimation results reveal that rising temperatures would initially increase the expected value of rice productivity to a certain threshold, but then would decrease it beyond that level. Furthermore, temperature rise could reduce variability in rice yield. Increased rainfall would reduce expected productivity while increasing variability. This study estimates multiple specifications of the Just-Pope function to assess the robustness of the results across varying model specifications. Simulations using historical climate data confirm that climate change has already reduced the expected value of rice productivity. Results are mixed in terms of variability, as simulations show that climate change has reduced the variability of northern regions while increasing that of southern regions. A comparison of the individual effects of temperature and rainfall suggests that these two variables tend to have opposite effects on expected value and variability, where the effects of rainfall tend to outweigh those of temperature. Also, models incorporating climate variables show a greater magnitude of change in expected value and variability than models based on short-term weather variables. These findings highlight that climate change is already affecting current agricultural productivity levels, emphasizing the urgency of implementing appropriate adaptation measures.

영어초록

This study combines Vietnam’s rice production data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) with climate data to estimate the stochastic impact of climate on rice productivity (yield) in Vietnam. The analysis utilizes the Just-Pope production function to assess how annual weather fluctuations or cross-sectional variance in long-term climate affect the expected value and variability of rice productivity. Also, the impact of climate change on current productivity levels is measured using a simulation method. The estimation results reveal that rising temperatures would initially increase the expected value of rice productivity to a certain threshold, but then would decrease it beyond that level. Furthermore, temperature rise could reduce variability in rice yield. Increased rainfall would reduce expected productivity while increasing variability. This study estimates multiple specifications of the Just-Pope function to assess the robustness of the results across varying model specifications. Simulations using historical climate data confirm that climate change has already reduced the expected value of rice productivity. Results are mixed in terms of variability, as simulations show that climate change has reduced the variability of northern regions while increasing that of southern regions. A comparison of the individual effects of temperature and rainfall suggests that these two variables tend to have opposite effects on expected value and variability, where the effects of rainfall tend to outweigh those of temperature. Also, models incorporating climate variables show a greater magnitude of change in expected value and variability than models based on short-term weather variables. These findings highlight that climate change is already affecting current agricultural productivity levels, emphasizing the urgency of implementing appropriate adaptation measures.

참고자료

· 없음