경기도 지역의 골프장의 내장객에 대한 계절 ARIMA모형을 이용한 수요예측분석 (An Analysis of Demand Prediction with the Use of Seasonal ARIMA Model for Golfers participating in Sport for All in Gyeonggi-do Area)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국체육과학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국체육과학회지 / 21권 / 2호 / 561 ~ 573페이지
· 저자명 : 유관호, 박두용

초록

Prediction for demand of golf population in Gyeonggi-do Province is a very important study in the aspect of being able to give help to establishing a marketing policy and establishing a service policy of a company, which operates golf course. Especially, a golf course in Gyeonggi-do Province is located in capital area, thereby having a positional merit available for attracting the largest golf population. A need of demand prediction can be known to get bigger through the more rational and scientific method in the real situation that golf-course users are growing. Accordingly, this study predicted demand of golf population in Gyeonggi-do Province from January 2012 to December by using the yearly and monthly data from January 2006 to December 2011 based on theoretical foundation on demand prediction and time series analysis on golf population in Gyeonggi-do. Seasonal ARIMA(1, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model was selected as the final model through diagnosing model identification - parameter estimation - model fitness, which are basic procedures of establishing ARIMA model. Accordingly, as a result of predicting demand of golf population in Jeju-do Island, it was estimated that the demand of golf population rapidly reduces in December, January and February and that the largest golfers visit in October, May and June. The conclusion was obtained as saying that golfers decrease slightly in July, August and November.

영어초록

Prediction for demand of golf population in Gyeonggi-do Province is a very important study in the aspect of being able to give help to establishing a marketing policy and establishing a service policy of a company, which operates golf course. Especially, a golf course in Gyeonggi-do Province is located in capital area, thereby having a positional merit available for attracting the largest golf population. A need of demand prediction can be known to get bigger through the more rational and scientific method in the real situation that golf-course users are growing. Accordingly, this study predicted demand of golf population in Gyeonggi-do Province from January 2012 to December by using the yearly and monthly data from January 2006 to December 2011 based on theoretical foundation on demand prediction and time series analysis on golf population in Gyeonggi-do. Seasonal ARIMA(1, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model was selected as the final model through diagnosing model identification - parameter estimation - model fitness, which are basic procedures of establishing ARIMA model. Accordingly, as a result of predicting demand of golf population in Jeju-do Island, it was estimated that the demand of golf population rapidly reduces in December, January and February and that the largest golfers visit in October, May and June. The conclusion was obtained as saying that golfers decrease slightly in July, August and November.

참고자료

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