SSP 시나리오에 따른 국내 용재수종의 서식지 적합도 평가

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국환경생물학회
· 수록지 정보 : 환경생물 / 40권 / 4호
· 저자명 : 안현권, 임철희

목차

Abstract
서 론
재료 및 방법
1. 연구대상지 및 범위
2. 수종 위치정보
3. 환경 변수
4. 종 분포 예측 모델 및 앙상블
결과 및 고찰
1. 모델의 정확도 및 인자별 중요도 평가
2. 수종별 서식지 분포 변화
3. 난대 용재수종의 잣나무 대체 가능성
4. 함의 및 한계
적 요
사 사
REFERENCES

영어초록

Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year (2000-2019), near future (2041-2060), and distant future (2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future (2081- 2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.

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