고속도로 연결로의 교통사고예측모형 개발
(주)코리아스칼라
- 최초 등록일
- 2016.04.02
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- 2012.10
- 11페이지/ 어도비 PDF
- 가격 4,200원
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서지정보
ㆍ발행기관 : 한국도로학회
ㆍ수록지정보 : 한국도로학회논문집 / 14권 / 5호
ㆍ저자명 : 최윤환, 오영태, 최기주, 이철기, 윤일수
영어 초록
PURPOSES: Using the collected data for crash, traffic volume, and design elements on ramps between 2007 and 2009, this research effort was initiated to develop traffic crash prediction models for expressway ramps. METHODS: Three negative binomial regression models and three zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for individual ramp types, including direct, semi-direct and loop, respectively. For validating the developed models, authors compared the estimated crash frequencies with actual crash frequencies of twelve randomly selected interchanges, the ramps of which have not been used for model developing. RESULTS: The results show that the negative binomial regression models for direct, semi-direct and loop ramps showed 60.3%, 63.8% and 48.7% error rates on average whereas the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models showed 82.1%, 120.4% and 57.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Conclusively, the negative binomial regression models worked better in traffic crash prediction than the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models for estimating the frequency of traffic accidents on expressway ramps.
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