기계학습모델을 이용한 이상기상에 따른 사일리지용 옥수수 생산량에 미치는 피해 산정

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 한국초지조사료학회 ㆍ수록지정보 : 한국초지조사료학회지 / 43권 / 1호
ㆍ저자명 : 김지융, 최재성, 조현욱, 김문주, 김병완, 성경일

목차

ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 재료 및 방법
1. 데이터 수집 및 가공
2. 수량예측모델 제작
3. 이상기상 피해량 산정
4. 이상기상 피해량 전자지도 제시
Ⅲ. 결과 및 고찰
1. RCP 4.5 시나리오에 따른 WCC의 DMY 예측값
2. RCP 4.5 시나리오에 따른 WCC의 피해량
3. RCP 4.5 시나리오에 따른 WCC의 피해량 전자지도
Ⅳ. 요약
Ⅴ. 사사
Ⅵ. REFERENCES

영어 초록

This study was conducted to estimate the damage of Whole Crop Corn (WCC; Zea Mays L.) according to abnormal climate using machine learning as the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and present the damage through mapping. The collected WCC data was 3,232. The climate data was collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration's meteorological data open portal. The machine learning model used DeepCrossing. The damage was calculated using climate data from the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS, 95 sites) by machine learning. The calculation of damage was the difference between the dry matter yield (DMY)normal and DMYabnormal. The normal climate was set as the 40-year of climate data according to the year of WCC data (1978-2017). The level of abnormal climate by temperature and precipitation was set as RCP 4.5 standard. The DMYnormal ranged from 13,845-19,347 kg/ha. The damage of WCC which was differed depending on the region and level of abnormal climate where abnormal temperature and precipitation occurred. The damage of abnormal temperature in 2050 and 2100 ranged from -263 to 360 and -1,023 to 92 kg/ha, respectively. The damage of abnormal precipitation in 2050 and 2100 was ranged from -17 to 2 and -12 to 2 kg/ha, respectively. The maximum damage was 360 kg/ha that the abnormal temperature in 2050. As the average monthly temperature increases, the DMY of WCC tends to increase. The damage calculated through the RCP 4.5 standard was presented as a mapping using QGIS. Although this study applied the scenario in which greenhouse gas reduction was carried out, additional research needs to be conducted applying an RCP scenario in which greenhouse gas reduction is not performed.

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