혼파초지에서 모형의 단계적 적용을 통한 수량예측 연구

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 한국초지조사료학회 ㆍ수록지정보 : 한국초지조사료학회지 / 37권 / 1호
ㆍ저자명 : 오승민, 김문주, 팽경룬, 이배훈, 김지융, 김병완, 조무환, 성경일

영어 초록

The objective of this study was to select a model showing high-levels of interpretability which is high in R-squared value in terms of predicting the yield in the mixed pasture using the factors of fertilization, seeding rate and years after pasture establishment in steps, as well as the climate as a basic factor. The processes of constructing the yield prediction model for the mixed pasture were performed in the sequence of data collection (forage and climatic data), preparation, analysis, and model construction. Through this process, six models were constructed after considering climatic variables, fertilization management, seeding rates, and periods after pasture establishment years in steps, thereafter the optimum model was selected through considering the coincidence of the models to the forage production theories. As a result, Model VI (R squared = 53.8%) including climatic variables, fertilization amount, seeding rates, and periods after pasture establishment was considered as the optimum yield prediction model for mixed pastures in South Korea. The interpretability of independent variables in the model were decreased in the sequence of climatic variables(24.5%), fertilization amount(17.8%), seeding rates(10.7%), and periods after pasture establishment(0.8%). However, it is necessary to investigate the reasons of positive correlation between dry matter yield and days of summer depression (DSD) by considering cultivated locations and using other cumulative temperature related variables instead of DSD. Meanwhile the another research about the optimum levels of fertilization amounts and seeding rates is required using the quadratic term due to the certain value-centered distribution of these two variables

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