시계열분석을 이용한 한국 명태어업의 어획량 예측 : AIC
(주)코리아스칼라
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- 2023.04.05
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- 1996.08
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서지정보
ㆍ발행기관 : 한국수산해양기술학회(구 한국어업기술학회)
ㆍ수록지정보 : 수산해양기술연구 / 32권 / 3호
ㆍ저자명 : 박해훈, 윤갑동
영어 초록
Forecasts of monthly landings of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in Korea were carried out by the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARlMA) model. The Box - Cox transformation on the walleye pollock catch data handles nonstationary variance. The equation of Box - Cox transformation was Y'=(Y0.31 1)/0.31. The model identification was determined by minimum AIC(Akaike Information Criteria). And the seasonal ARlMA model is presented (1- O.583B)(1- B1)(l- B12)Zt =(l- O.912B)(1- O.732B12)et where: Zt=value at month t ; Bp is a backward shift operator, that is, BpZt=Zt-P; and et= error term at month t, which is to forecast 24 months ahead the walleye pollock landings in Korea. Monthly forecasts of the walleye pollock landings for 1993~ 1994, which were compared with the actual landings, had an absolute percentage error(APE) range of 20.2-226.1 %. Thtal observed annual landings in 1993 and 1994 were 16, 61OM/T and 1O, 748M/T respectively, while the model predicted 10, 7 48M/T and 8, 203M/T(APE 37.0% and 23.7%, respectively).
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