혼합모형을 이용한 사회복지비 지출 결정요인에 관한 분석

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 21세기사회복지학회 ㆍ수록지정보 : 21세기사회복지연구 / 2권 / 1호
ㆍ저자명 : 정종식, 서상범

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론
Ⅱ. 연구범위와 방법
Ⅲ. 결정요인에 관한 개념적 준거틀 - 혼합모형
Ⅳ. 연구설계
Ⅴ. 실증적 분석 결과 및 논의
Ⅵ. 결 론
참고문헌
Abstract

한국어 초록

본 논문은 혼합모형을 이용한 사회복지비 지출에 영향을 주는 요인들의 상대적 중요도와 이들 간의 상관관계를 검증하고 다중회귀분석을 함으로써 지방자치단체의 사회복지비 지출 결정요인에 대한 주요요인을 분석하였다. 즉 우리나라 지방자치단체의 1995년부터 2002년까지 종속변수인 지출된 1인당 사회복지비(y)와 독립변수인 사회경제적인 변수(1인당 GNP, 지방재정자립도, 고령화율, 생활보호대상자비율) 및 정치행정적인 변수(정치참여율, 정당간의 정치적 경쟁, 지방재정교부금)와의 관계를 실증 분석하였다.
본 연구의 방법으로는 변수간의 영향력과 상대적인 중요성을 실증적으로 분석하기 위하여 사회복지비 지출 결정요인에 대한 개념과 선행연구결과를 검토하고 그 한계를 제시하였으며, 이를 통해 관련변수를 선정하여 결정요인의 분석틀을 작성하였고, 사회복지비 지출 결정요인에 관한 이론모형을 연구 설계하여 실증적 분석을 통해 결과를 도출하였다.
본 연구결과는 지방자치 실시 이후 지방자치단체의 8년간의 자료만으로 사회복지비 지출 요인에 대한 변화를 충분하게 파악할 수 있는가하는 문제점이 있으나 연구결과들을 토대로 우리나라의 지방정부복지예산을 검증하였다는 데에 큰 의의가 있으며, 특히 지방자치제도가 실시된 중간과정 이후의 예산결정요인분석이라는 것에 의의가 있다 하겠다.
본 연구의 결과는 시사하고 있다.

영어 초록

This study verified the relative consequence of influential factors on social welfare expenditure as a key parameter in the development of social welfare policy and correlations between those factors along with multiple regression analysis. In other words, this study performed an empirical analysis about the relationships between a dependent variable(the amount of social welfare expenditure per capita as spent by Korean local government from 1995 to 2002) and two independent variables, i.e. socioeconomic variables(per capita GNP, local financial independence, the ratio of the aged over 65 and the ratio of the poor) and political-administrative variables(rate of political participation, inter- party political competition, local financial grant).
This study developed a framework helpful to analyze determinants with related variables selected, while researching and designing a theoretical model about determinants in social welfare expenditure so as to come to final conclusions by empirical analysis(correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis). As the result of analysis, it was found that the results of multiple regression analysis between political -administrative variables(independent variable) and per capita social welfare expenditure(dependent variable) amounted to 87.7% in explanatory power, which was relatively lower than explanatory power(98.3%) of results obtained from multiple regression analysis of socio-economic variables. In the analytic framework of mixed model, it is difficult to explain a relationship like ‘political-administrative variables → socio- economic variables → production of social welfare expenditure’, but it is convincing to set up another relationship like ‘socio-economic variable → political-administrative variable → production of social welfare expenditure.’ In this regard, it is reasonable to set up a model that describes a modified version of sequential relationship as suggested herein. Based on results of analysis herein, this study could come to the following conclusions:
First, the ratio of the aged over 65 has a considerable impact on the amount of social welfare expenditure per capita, which implies that such influential trend is so significantly associated with our contemporary aging-induced social problems in South Korea, because it will be possibly necessary to keep spending social welfare expenditures as a part of remedial solutions for ever-intensified social elder problem.
Secondly, social welfare expenditure is still under the influence of per capital GNP, and the higher GNP yields the higher financial income and the more availability of governmental resources necessary to promote social welfare policies.
Thirdly, another noteworthy point is the financial independence of local government. Only in view of the results hereof, it may be concluded that the higher level of financial independence had a tendency to the lower amount of per capita social welfare expenditure. This tendency points out that budget expenditure is largely focused on our sense of welfare and local development.
Fourthly, it was found that interparty political competitions had impact on social welfare expenditure, which implies that local candidates from each party struggle to advocate public commitment for the benefit of low-income class, so the amount of social welfare expenditure becomes increasing inevitably.
In view of the results hereof, it is somewhat controversial whether the extent of change in factors of social welfare expenditure can be enough identified only with 8-year data on local government's welfare policies after local government system was initiated. However, it is so significant that this study verified the welfare budget of Korean local government successfully based on research results. Especially, it is noteworthy that this study analyzed determinants in budget-making process after intermediate progress of local government system in Korea.
Summing up, since determinants in the social welfare expenditure of local government are affected by various factors, it is recommended to explore countermeasures from an integrated angle by allowing for the appropriateness of determinants in social welfare expenditure, rather than focus on the explanatory power of a certain factor.

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