Development of mathematical model on regionalization using records of livestock related vehicles for control strategy of highly pathogenic avian influenza

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 한국예방수의학회(구 한국수의공중보건학회) ㆍ수록지정보 : 예방수의학회지 / 41권 / 4호
ㆍ저자명 : Jonghyun Seo, Hyuk Park, Kwang-Hee Han, Wooseog Jeong, Hachung Yoon, Ki-Hyun Cho, Chung-Sik Jung, Yong-Myung Kang, Hong-Sik Park, Son-Il Pak, Hunseok Kang

목차

서 론
재료 및 방법
국내 축산시설 지리적 분포 시각화
권역화 모델 구축
2015/2016 HPAI 발생 초기 자료를 적용한 시뮬레이션
2016/2017 HPAI 발생패턴 분석
결 과
축산시설 지리적 분포
2015/2016 HPAI 발생 패턴 분석
2015/2016 HPAI 발생 초기 자료를 적용한 시뮬레이션
권역 특성 분석
고 찰
축산시설 지리적 분포 해석
시뮬레이션 군집 후보와 2015/2016 HPAI 발생 사례 패턴 군집 비교 해석
시뮬레이션 결과에 따른 권역 제시와 해석
감사의 글
REFERENCES

영어 초록

In this paper, a mathematical model of regionalization based on graph theory to investigate the patterns induced by movements of livestock vehicles in cities under outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is proposed. We then compare the results of simulation from the regionalization model to actual HPAI outbreaks in 2016/2017 to evaluate the validity of the model. Specifically, we (1) configured a complex network structure with analytic tools and properties in graph theory to abstract the paths among farms and livestock facilities; (2) employed statistical methods to estimate the possibility of propagation between two clusters; (3) applied the developed method to an actual HPAI outbreak in Korea in 2016 and conducted a simulation to determine if the proposed modeling for regionalization is an effective prediction measure. The clustered regions proposed by the simulation correctly reflected the regional clustering of actual cases, while simultaneously contain the cities exposed to potential damage when separated. Based on these findings, we conclude that our proposed regionalization model is suitable for making policy judgments to establish a preemptive biosecurity system.

참고 자료

없음