시계열 분석을 통한 보육교사 수급 전망

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 한국보육지원학회 ㆍ수록지정보 : 한국보육지원학회지 / 12권 / 6호
ㆍ저자명 : 이미화, 박진아, 강은진

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론
Ⅱ. 연구방법
Ⅲ. 시나리오에 따른 보육교사 수요 전망 결과
Ⅴ. 논의 및 제언
참고문헌

한국어 초록

영어 초록

The purpose of this study was to forecast demand of childcare teachers based ion
four different scenarios. In order to, the demand for childcare teachers from 2015
to 2024 were forecasted using time series techniques with data on the number of
childcare teachers from 2003 to 2014. Results were as followings. Firstly, the
demand for childcare teachers was expected to increase until 2019, but after 2020
steadily decreased in terms of scenario 1(child teacher ratio regulation). According
to scenario 2(child teacher ratio based on 17 cities and provinces), the demand
for childcare teachers was expected to need 440 teachers more until 2016. Then,
according to scenario 3(two teachers each class), Scenario 4-1(one teacher and
one staff each 2 toddler class and 3 older class) and scenario 4-2(one teacher and
one staff each class), the demand of childcare teachers and staffs were estimated.
These results implicated that childcare teachers and staffs supply policy would be
established according to forecast demand.

참고 자료

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