釜山市 交通事故豫測模型의 開發

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 대한교통학회 ㆍ수록지정보 : 대한교통학회지 / 10권 / 3호
ㆍ저자명 : 林憲延, 李一炳

목차

ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. 序論
Ⅱ. 旣存硏究事例 및 適用性 檢討
Ⅲ. 釜山市 社會的與件의 變化와 交通事故推移
Ⅳ. 釜山市 交通事故豫測模型의 開發 및 事故短期 豫測
Ⅵ. 結論
參考文獻

영어 초록

The objective of this research is to develop a traffic accident forecasting model using traffic accident data in pusan from 1963 to 1991 and then to make short-term forecasts('93~'94) of traffic accidents in pusan.
In this research, several forecasting models are developed. They include a multiple regression model, a time-series ARIMA model, a Logistic curve model, and a Gompertz curve model. Among them, the model which shows the most significance in forecasting accuracy is selected as the traffic accident forecasting model.
The results of this research are as followings.
1. The existing model such as Smeed model which was developed for foreign countries shows only 47.8% explanation for traffic accident deaths in Korea.
2. A nonliner regression model (R²=0.9432) and a Logistic curve model are appeared to be the best forecasting models for the number of traffic accidents, and a Logistic curve model shows the most significance in predicting the accident deaths and injuries.
3. The forecasting figures of the traffic accidents in pusan are as followings :
• In 1993, 31, 180 accidents are predicted to happen, and 430 persons are predicted to be deaths and 29,680 persons are predicated to be injuries.
• In 1994, 33, 710 accidents are predicted to happen, and 431 persons are predicted to be deaths and 30, 510 persons are predicted to be injuried.
Therefore, preventive measures against traffic accidents are certainly required.

참고 자료

없음