학술논문 : 특집논문 ; 북한 3대 세습체제에 따른 북한의 변화와 대남 영향 : 김정은 세습체제의 군사정책 전망

저작시기 2010.01 |등록일 2011.04.01 파일확장자어도비 PDF (pdf) | 31페이지 | 가격 6,600원
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* 본 문서는 배포용으로 복사 및 편집이 불가합니다.

서지정보

발행기관 : 한국군사학회 수록지정보 : 군사논단 / 64권 / 39 ~ 69 페이지
저자명 : 박헌옥 ( Hun Ok Park )

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North Korea is proceeding with the three generation dictatorship heredity that we cannot find anywhere in the world. This study is aimed at predicting North Korea`s military policy direction by analyzing the military policy environment of Kim Jong-eun`s hereditary system and 2010 military policy behavior. The following conclusions have been reached through analyzing North Korea`s military policy flow and 2010 military policy. First, the military policy has a higher proportion of North Korea`s regime. Kim Il-sung could control military force with the help of the Soviet military and seized power through it and since Kim Jung-il has maintained his regime by using the military as the justification for Sungun (military first) politics, Kim Jong-eun`s hereditary system will also adopt a military-first policy. Second, the military policy environment of Kim Jong-eun`s hereditary system is facing trouble both internally and externally compared to Kim Il-sung and Kim jong-i1`s regime. Internal environment such as cumulative fatigue, economic collapse, public unrest, etc. is not good due to preparing for war for a long time. In terms of inter-Korean relations, strained relations continue due to frequent military provocations and in terms of international relations, North Korea is losing trust from the international community due to promotion of nuclear crisis and successive military provocations. Third, for the year 2010 North Korean threatening military policies such as provocative military exercises, the sinking of Cheonan ship, the disclosure of the uranium enrichment facilities, the devastating bombing of Yeonpyeongdo, etc. have given some help to internal control and solidarity, but have been unsuccessful externally. Forth, the military policy direction of Kim Jong-eun`s hereditary system will vary depending on success or failure and aspects of the hereditary succession of power. 1. In case of maintaining the relatively stable hereditary system, it will take a strong military policy. 2. In case of maintaining the unstable hereditary system, North Korea`s military provocation to South Korea will be weaken because they should mobilize military forces for internal management. 3. In case of failure of Kim Jong-eun`s hereditary system, the extreme turmoil such as riot, coup, civil war, etc. will be predicted and with the collapse of North Korea`s regime Korean Peninsula issue will be very crucial in international politics. Therefore, since the military policy of Kim Jong-eun`s hereditary system may be major variables in security and reunification of Korean Peninsula, the multiple strategies to cope with the situation in various ways depending on the situation are necessary.

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