China`s Interests in Korean Unification: How Much Longer is the \"Buffer\" Worth It?

저작시기 2014.01 |등록일 2015.04.24 파일확장자어도비 PDF (pdf) | 18페이지 | 가격 5,300원
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발행기관 : 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 수록지정보 : The Korean Journal of Security Affairs (KJSA) / 19권 / 2호
저자명 : ( Robert E. Kelly )

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I apply a generic framework of states’ international goals to Chinese foreign policy toward North Korea and unification. Following traditional international relations theory, I argue that states seek, in ranked order, security, economic gain, and prestige in their interaction with other states. Applied to China and North Korea, this suggests: 1. Security: North Korea ‘buffers’ China from the democracies of South Korea, Japan, and the United States. As long as North Korea does not veer too wildly from Chinese preferences, China will obstruct unification. If it cannot, it will likely seek Korean neutralization and a withdrawal of US forces in exchange for its acquiescence. 2. Prosperity: China will likely seek to vouchsafe its unique economic penetration of North Korea in a united Korea. However, South Korean economic interaction with China is so great that whether China gains or loses economically from unification is indeterminate. 3. Prestige: China suffers growing international ‘audience costs’ by indefinitely supporting the North. This is the likeliest point of leverage for those seeking to disjoin Beijing from Pyongyang, accelerate unification, and win over hesitant Chinese elites. This paper assumes China to be a rational actor; it therefore will continue to support North Korean sovereignty until the costs of #3 outweigh the gains of #1, with #2 indeterminate. If US manages to ‘pivot’ to Asia, it may up-end the security calculus, by tying a growing US Asian presence to Chinese behavior on North Korea.

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