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학업수행에 많은 도움이 되었으면 좋겠습니다.감사합니다.
목차
제1장 서론············································································································21. 연구의 배경과 연구목적··················································································2
2. 연구의 방법과 연구의 구성·············································································2
제2장 이론적 배경·····························································································3-4
1. 환율과 여행수지······························································································3
2. 환율과 여행수지에 관한 선행연구·······························································3-4
제3장 환율과 여행수지의 실증분석·································································4-10
1. 자료수집·········································································································4
2. 변수의 정의····································································································4
3. 변수의 데이터 값························································································5-8
4. 기술통계량··································································································8-9
5. 회귀분석····································································································9-10
제4장 요약 및 한계점·························································································11
1. 요약 및 결론·································································································11
2. 연구의 한계점 및 연구방향···········································································11
참고문헌··············································································································12
본문내용
1. 요약 및 결론본 논문은 환율이 서비스수지 중 여행수지에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 알아보기 위한 것이다. 만일 환율과 여행수지 사이에 인과관계가 존재한다면 환율을 예측하여 여행수지 적자를 줄일 수 있다는 추론도 할 수 있다. 또한 환율을 예측하면 여행수지 적자 감소뿐만 아니라 궁극적으로는 서비스수지 전체가 증대될 것이라는 추론을 할 수 있다.
한국은 수출주도형 고도성장을 이룩하였으나 내수시장의 협소함으로 인한 해외시장의 의존과 기술의 해외의존 그리고 서비스산업의 경쟁력 낙후가 서비스수지적자 구조를 형성하게 되었다. 특히 서비스수지 중 여행수지적자가 차지하는 비율은 60%이상으로 이는 경상수지 흑자 폭을 줄이는 주요인으로 취급 받게 되었다. 본 연구와 유사한 연구로써 제라키스(A. Gerakis)가 1965년에 발표한 `환율의 평가절하와 재평가가 여행수입에 미치는 효과에 대한 연구`와 동년 마틴과 위트(Christine A. Martin and Stephen F. Witt)의 `목적지 소비자 물가지수, 환율, 송출지 소비자 물가지수가 여행 지출에 미치는 영향` 등이 있는데, 본 연구는 `환율이 서비스수지 중 여행수지에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지` 알아보기 위한 실증분석을 함으로써 환율을 예측하여 여행수지 적자를 줄일 수 있을 것인지에 관한 논리를 검증하였다.
연구방법은 단순회귀분석을 사용하였는데, 분석결과 환율이 여행수지에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났고, 이에 환율을 예측하여 여행수지적자를 줄일 수 있을 것이라는 결론을 도출 할 수 있었다.
2. 연구의 한계점 및 연구방향
본 연구에서의 실증분석은 환율과 여행수지만을 가지고 분석하였기 때문에 환율을 예측하여 여행수지 적자를 줄일 수 있다는 논리를 주장하기에는 다소 부족하다. 이는 환율이라는 변수가 100% 여행수지와 관련이 있다고 보기는 어렵고, 환율 외에 다른 변수들이 여행수지에 미치는 요인들도 고려를 해야 하기 때문이다. 하지만 모든 변수들을 포함하기란 매우 어렵다.
참고 자료
외환수급통계 : 원화의 대미달러 환율 통계자료, 한국은행, 1990~2010 http://kostat.go.kr/wnsearchNew/search.jsp국제수지통계 : 경상수지(S.A.) , 한국은행, 1980~2010
http://kostat.go.kr/wnsearchNew/search.jsp
박유미, “광고비가 민간최종소비지출에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구”, 2010.12
한진희, “환율변동성이 서비스수지에 미치는 영향”, 2007
A. Gerakis, "Effects of Exchange Rate Devaluation and Revaluation on Receipts from Tourism", IMF Staff Papers, IMF, 1965
D. Chadee and Z. Mieozkowski, "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of the Exchange Rate on Canadian Tourism" Journal of Travel Research, Vol.26, No1. 1987
Rebecca Summary, "Estimation of Tourism Demand by multivariable regression analysis", Tourism Management, 1987
M. Uysal and J. L. Crompton, "Determination of Demand for international tourist flows to Turkey", Tourism Management, 1984
H.P.Gray, "The Demand for international travel by the United States and Canada", International Economic Review, Vol.17, January, 1966
Christin A. Martin and Stephen F. Witt, "Forecasting future trend in European tourist demand", Tourist Review, vol. 40, 1985
