벤처 평가 및 투자

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INFORMS`2000에 발표한 논문입니다.
사례기반추론에 근거한 벤처 투자 의사결정 방법론에관한 연구.

목차

ABSTRACT
1. Introduction
2. Decision Class Analysis and Case Based Reasoning
3. Case Based Reasoning Approach for Venture Investment Decision
4. Case Representation and Retrieval
5. Case Adaptation
6. Conclusions
REFERENCES

본문내용

An application of case-based reasoning is proposed to build an influence diagram for identifying successful new
ventures. The decision to invest in new ventures is characterized by incomplete information and uncertainty, where
some measures of firm performance are quantitative, while some others are substituted by qualitative indicators.
Influence diagrams are used as a model for representing investment decision problems based on incomplete and
uncertain information from a variety of sources. The building of influence diagrams needs much time and efforts and
the resulting model such as a decision model is applicable to only one specific problem. However, some prior
knowledge from the experience to build decision model can be utilized to resolve other similar decision problems.
The basic idea of case-based reasoning is that humans reuse the problem solving experience to solve a new decision.
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참고 자료

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Howard, R.A. (1984). The used car buyer, in Howard, R.A. & Matheson, J.E. (eds.), Readings on the Principles and
Applications of Decision Analysis. Vol. II, Strategic Decision Group, Menlo Park, CA.
Howard, R.A. (1988). Decision analysis: practice and promise, Management Science 34 679-695.
Kim, J.K. (1991).A Knowledge-Based System for Decision Analysis. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Industrial
Engineering KAIST, Korea.
Kolodner, J. (1993). Case-Based Reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, CA,
Kolodner, J. (1991). Improving Human Decision Making through Case-Based Decision Aiding, AI MAGAZINE
Summer
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Hall, John and Charles W. Hofer, (1993). Venture Capital Decision Criteria in New Venture Evaluation, IEEE
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Economic Systems Stanford University.
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Sandberg, W.R. (1986). New Venture Performance. Lexington, MA: Lexington.
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Timmons, J.A. (1994). New Venture Creation: Entrepreneurship for the 21th Century. Homewood, IL:Trwin.
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